Errors in The Effects of Nuclear Weapons
Government secrecy, such as the UK Official Secrets Act, and anti-nuclear propaganda have inflated nuclear weapons effects, distorting public understanding and deterrence policies. Declassified data reveal survivable scenarios, undermining apocalyptic narratives. This paper synthesizes evidence to debunk nuclear weapons myths, advocating for fact-based civil defense and policy.
R. G. Shreffler and W. S. Bennett, Tactical nuclear warfare, Los Alamos report LA-4467-MS, originally classified SECRET, p8 (linked here):
"Our present tactical nuclear armaments were conceived and weaponized in the 1950’s under assumptions that are ill-advised for the 1970’s. Escalation was equated with desperation in an extension of a contestant concept of war. Ten or twenty kilotons was regarded as a “small, tactical” yield, to be used in a European ground battle for real estate after a strategic exchange. In the aftermath of that holocaust, reducing “tactical” collateral damage was only of academic interest. A new strategy - policing our boundaries with individual yields reduced by factors of 100 to 1000, and burst predominantly in the air or underground – could reduce the integrated collateral damage by factors of thousands, even if the number of uses were greatly increased."
The point of collecting the all key relevant censored evidence is our standard technique for averting - during the research and development phase - what Hiroshima duck and cover researcher Irving Janis called "groupthink" (see both his RAND Corp 1951 Air War and Emotional Stress, and his 1972 Victims of Groupthink) or as Herman Kahn put it, "educated incapacity" (see his Hudson Institite 1972 Things to Come). However, we can then - after getting all the facts - assemble the data into chapters for a new book to replace "Nuclear Weapons Effects Theory" (1990). God willing, this shall be done soon.
The mainstream dogma approach is to start with a false speculation, e.g. Luddite superstitions on nuclear weapons deterrence technology to prejudice deterrence discussions, or spin-2 gravitons or Planck scale unification speculations to prejudice that, and then try to justify it, whatever additional speculation is "necessary". If you instead collect all evidence of facts and debunking falsehoods first, you can avoid that supersymmetry type pitfall!
Debunking Nuclear Weapons Effects Myths: A Scientific Reassessment
This section provides a very brief introduction to our comprehensive reassessment of exaggerated claims surrounding nuclear weapons effects—thermal radiation, blast waves, and radioactive fallout—utilizing historical data from Hiroshima, Nagasaki, and Maralinga nuclear tests, alongside critical analyses by Brian Martin (1982, 1988). It challenges the myth of inevitable nuclear winter and underscores the effectiveness of civil defense strategies, drawing extensively on Nigel Cook’s blog (2006–2024) and his 1990 manuscript. The findings advocate for revised deterrence policies based on transparent, evidence-based modeling rather than Cold War propaganda. The thermal flash and the blast wave’s destructive potential is frequently overstated, suggesting near-total annihilation, based on Penney’s 1945 Hiroshima and Nagasaki blast parameter measurements in real cities that absorb thermal flash energy and blast energy, and which contain many more modern concrete buildings that provide shelter. Radiation hazards are often portrayed as persistent and lethal, yet sheltering and decay rates mitigate this risk.
Thermal Radiation and Fire Exaggerations:
Thermal radiation effects are overstated in popular narratives. Data from Hiroshima and Nagasaki, analyzed in secret UK government reports by George R. Stanbury, show that modern city skylines provide significant shielding. By averting firestorms, thermal shadowing prevents mass burns and also mass fires, preventing the soot injection into the stratosphere, preventing “nuclear winter” propaganda from being a reality.
Blast Exaggerations:
Blast effects are mitigated by modern urban structures. William Penney’s analyses of Hiroshima and Nagasaki reveal that blast energy is absorbed by buildings, reducing effective yield. For a 1 kt explosion, peak overpressure drops from 5 psi at 500 m to 1 psi at 1 km in urban settings, compared to Glasstone’s open-terrain models. Nuclear test data from Maralinga and Monte Bello confirm these findings.
Nuclear Radiation Exaggerations:
Initial nuclear radiation and fallout risks are exaggerated. Shielding by concrete or earth reduces gamma radiation significantly (e.g., 10 cm concrete halves dose). Fallout decays rapidly, with dose rates dropping by a factor of 100 within 48 hours from the 1 hour level. Hiroshima/Nagasaki survival data and nuclear test reports (e.g., DNA EM-1) demonstrate that simple shelters ensure high survival rates.
Deterrence and Propaganda:
Effective civil defense measures, validated by the UK Civil Defence Corps and nuclear tests, enable survival through shielding and preparedness. Simple trenches or basements reduce blast and radiation exposure by over 90%, but this is still “disputed” by those who don’t want nuclear deterrence to end war. Government secrecy, such as the UK Official Secrets Act, and anti-nuclear propaganda have inflated nuclear weapons effects, distorting public understanding and deterrence policies. Declassified data reveal survivable scenarios, undermining apocalyptic narratives. This paper synthesizes evidence to debunk nuclear weapons myths, advocating for fact-based civil defense and policy. Future work should expand public access to declassified data and counter misinformation.
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